Beyond the Northern Sea Route: The Developmental State and Japanese Arctic Energy Policy

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Japan’s then Foreign Minister Koichiro Genba and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a high level meeting in Sochi in 2012. Photo: The Presidential Press and Information Office

The Arctic Institute Japan Series 2026

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Japan’s long-term engagement in the Arctic represents an effort that has helped it to leverage its developmental state model – a system of governance based on consensus-building between the public and private sectors – in shaping its identity as both a science and technology (S&T) popularizer and a responsible near-Arctic neighbor. For Japan, the Arctic represents both a strategic opportunity and a challenge. Climate change and the resulting melting ice not only ease access to regional maritime routes, such as the Northern Sea Route (NSR), but they also provide access to the region’s vast resources, ranging from fossil fuel to fish, which could prove vital for Japan’s national security. Simultaneously, Arctic’s abundant resources, harsh climate, and complex governance structure turn the region into a high-risk zone for both countries and corporations to operate in.

By embracing international collaboration in the Arctic, Tokyo has actively taken part in Arctic states’ projects and initiatives including Russian oil and gas projects in Northern Siberia and Sakhalin. The outbreak of the Ukraine War, however, has shattered the regional status quo, with Russia facing Western sanctions and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) expanding its regional presence. As a result, Japan now finds itself at a strategic crossroads needing to balance its involvement in Russian energy sector with its broader traditional geopolitical alignment with the West.

This article examines Japan’s Arctic policy through the lens of its developmental state framework, highlighting how business-governmental partnerships shape its responses to shifting geopolitical realities. By analyzing Japanese private ventures and public policy discourses, it explores how Tokyo balances its economic needs, alliance obligations, and its broader strategic competition with China. Ultimately, it asserts that Japan needs to find a balance between its Arctic commitments and its credibility as a Western ally. It concludes by suggesting that the current standoff between Russia and the West provides Japan with a unique opportunity for the successful ‘de-Russification’ of its energy supply chains while maintaining an active engagement in Arctic affairs as a responsible, western allied non-Arctic nation.

The Developmental State Model

The concept of “developmental state” was used to describe Japanese economic strategy during Japan’s periods of rapid industrialization prior to, and following, World War II. It characterizes an approach that emerging market economies can implement in order to achieve rapid industrialization and development wherein “an interventionist state and the private sector collaborate and manage the market economy to achieve economic development and autonomy of the state.”¹⁾Tonami A (2018) Exporting the Developmental State: Japan’s Economic Diplomacy in the Arctic. Third World Quarterly 39 (6): 1211–25 Representing a third alternative to Cold War-era command and market economies, the approach was utilized by Japan to achieve rapid economic growth and develop its domestic industries.²⁾Tonami A (2018) Exporting the Developmental State: Japan’s Economic Diplomacy in the Arctic. Third World Quarterly 39 (6): 1211–25

The strong involvement of the state in Japan’s economy, in turn, has been commonly attributed to the country’s tradition of consensus-based decision-making and state leadership.³⁾Tonami A (2018) Exporting the Developmental State: Japan’s Economic Diplomacy in the Arctic. Third World Quarterly 39 (6): 1211–25 The latter emerged during the Meiji Restoration (1868-1889) when Japan achieved rapid industrialization and westernization under government guidance.⁴⁾Paine S C M (2017) The Japanese Empire: Grand Strategy from the Meiji Restoration to the Pacific War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Following its defeat in World War II, Japan pursued a similar policy of state-led economic recovery, relying on the collaboration between the Ministry of International Trade and Investment (MITI), the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and private enterprises. Through close cooperation, these actors coordinated Japanese industrial policy, relying on consensus-based structures, bureaucracy, and keiretsu – business networks tying together partner companies within a specific industry and financial institutions such as major banks.⁵⁾Tonami A (2018) Exporting the Developmental State: Japan’s Economic Diplomacy in the Arctic. Third World Quarterly 39 (6): 1211–25 This framework enabled the Japanese state to achieve its rapid Cold War-era economic growth, and it also molded the country’s uniquely trade focused “official development aid” (ODA) strategy.⁶⁾Tonami A (2018) Exporting the Developmental State: Japan’s Economic Diplomacy in the Arctic. Third World Quarterly 39 (6): 1211–25 In addition, it enabled Japan to establish closer ties with its Asian neighbors, promote private sector investments into infrastructure and human resources,⁷⁾Tonami A (2018) Exporting the Developmental State: Japan’s Economic Diplomacy in the Arctic. Third World Quarterly 39 (6): 1211–25 and implement an industrial pivot toward East Asia after the 1985 Plaza Accord.⁸⁾Chen J (2025) Plaza Accord: Definition, History, Purpose, and Its Replacement. Investopedia, 01 November, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/plaza-accord.asp. Accessed 18 October 2025.

In addition, this model, operating in conjunction with Japan’s post-war pacifist constitution, fostered a relationship of mutual dependence between the state and private enterprises in the field of S&T. As a result, and given the tightly circumscribed operational mandate of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (SDF), much of Japan’s technological development, including in dual-use domains, has historically been driven and financed by the private sector rather than by the military. In 2018, for instance, 97 % of Japan’s R&D budget was used for commercial technologies, with many dual-use inventions being “spun on” from the commercial to the military sector. Conversely, much of Japan’s military R&D funding helped provide resources and know-how that large corporations such as Mitsubishi and Toray could use in their commercial activities.⁹⁾Togashi M (2020) Japan’s Economic Security and the Role of the Private Sector. Center for Strategic and International Studies, 28 August, https://www.csis.org/blogs/new-perspectives-asia/japans-economic-security-and-role-private-sector. Accessed 25 September 2025. Advanced technology and science have further been seen as Japan’s new way forward following the 1990s economic recession to the extent that some observers claim that S&T helped fuel most of Japan’s post-recession economic growth and became Tokyo’s bargaining chip in the international arena.¹⁰⁾Tonami A (2018) Exporting the Developmental State: Japan’s Economic Diplomacy in the Arctic. Third World Quarterly 39 (6): 1211–25

Although the degree of government involvement fluctuated throughout the post-war decades, the developmental state framework has, by and large, shaped Japan’s economic policy even though it has at times proved to be a double-edged sword. For instance, aggressive lending by Japanese banks, protracted monetary easing, and regulatory preferences toward higher land prices were some of the causes of the 1980s asset price bubble produced by inefficiencies inherent in joint private-public economic decision-making.¹¹⁾Okina K, Shirakawa M, Shiratsuka S (2001) The Asset Price Bubble and Monetary Policy: Japan’s Experience in the Late 1980s and the Lessons. Monetary and Economic Studies Special Edition/February 2001. On the other hand, the very same framework aided Japan’s economic recovery following its 1990s economic recession and continues to guide Japan’s policy and foreign aid schemes to present day not least in relation to the Arctic.¹²⁾Tonami A (2018) Exporting the Developmental State: Japan’s Economic Diplomacy in the Arctic. Third World Quarterly 39 (6): 1211–25

Northern Sea Route and the Iron Triangle

For Japan, the Arctic represents an arena where it can assert its influence through exporting its developmental state model beyond the developing world, utilizing ODA-style cooperation projects, scientific research collaboration, and, if ever needed, peacekeeping efforts. Following the 1987 Murmansk Initiative and declaration of the Arctic as a “zone of peace”, Japan began setting up regional research institutions such as the Center for Arctic Research under the National Institute of Polar Research and the Japanese research station on Svalbard.¹³⁾Tonami A (2018) Exporting the Developmental State: Japan’s Economic Diplomacy in the Arctic. Third World Quarterly 39 (6): 1211–25 Between 1993-1999, Tokyo participated in International Northern Sea Route Program together with Russia and Norway seeking to explore the feasibility of using the Northern Sea Route (NSR) along the Russian coast for maritime transport.¹⁴⁾Hataya S (2024) Japan’s Arctic Policy: Current Status and Challenges. Asia Pacific Bulletin 678. In parallel, a similar endeavor was carried out by the Ship & Ocean Foundation, an institution with significant connection to the Japanese shipping industry and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), with the aim to explore the feasibility of commercial shipping along the NSR.¹⁵⁾Tonami A, Watters S (2012) Japan’s Arctic Policy: The Sum of Many Parts. Arctic Yearbook. With Japan being a resource-constrained country, the NSR would further offer significantly lower shipping costs for energy imports and allow Tokyo to diversify its energy supply. Currently, Japan imports 95,6 % of its oil from the Middle East and over 50 % of its LNG from Australia and Malaysia,¹⁶⁾Ene Hyakka (2024) Japan’s Fossil Fuel Imports by Country of Origin. Ene Hyakka (エネ百科), https://www.ene100.jp/www/wp-content/uploads/zumen/e1-2-4.pdf. Accessed 21 August 2025. and thus it is dangerously exposed to potential geopolitical shocks in the Suez Canal and Taiwan Strait, respectively.

Yet, the image of Japan as a near-Arctic nation only began to gain traction following its 2009 application to join the AC as an observer nation.¹⁷⁾Tonami A (2018) Exporting the Developmental State: Japan’s Economic Diplomacy in the Arctic. Third World Quarterly 39 (6): 1211–25 After applying, Japan sought to demonstrate its relative regional importance through joint ministerial efforts. Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) established an Arctic Task Force and appointed an Arctic ambassador. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) introduced large-scale regional research programs, and the MLIT began hosting special committee meetings with relevant business stakeholders on the future feasibility of the NSR.¹⁸⁾Tonami A (2018) Exporting the Developmental State: Japan’s Economic Diplomacy in the Arctic. Third World Quarterly 39 (6): 1211–25 This coordinated approach, in turn, vividly demonstrates the interdependence of Japanese businesses and ministries in line with the developmental state framework – also referred to as the “iron triangle” – connecting politicians, businesses, and government departments into a consensus-making unit. Each part of the triangle depends on the other with government officials seeking to obtain politically useful information from business representatives and businesses seeking guidance on trade-related issues and state funding in return.¹⁹⁾Tonami A, Watters S (2012) Japan’s Arctic Policy: The Sum of Many Parts. Arctic Yearbook.

Japan gained observer status in the AC in 2013 and subsequently formulated its first official Arctic Strategy in 2015, emphasizing regional R&D investment, sustainability, and international cooperation as the pillars of its approach. The strategy, which became legally binding in 2018,²⁰⁾Tonami A (2018) Exporting the Developmental State: Japan’s Economic Diplomacy in the Arctic. Third World Quarterly 39 (6): 1211–25 relies on Japan’s strong S&T sector and builds upon Tokyo’s need to cooperate with other nations to achieve its regional goals.²¹⁾Tonami A (2018) Exporting the Developmental State: Japan’s Economic Diplomacy in the Arctic. Third World Quarterly 39 (6): 1211–25

Russian LNG Takes Center Stage After Fukushima Meltdown

Following the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster, Japan began to actively search for alternatives to nuclear energy amid widespread skepticism toward nuclear safety.²²⁾Tonami A (2018) Exporting the Developmental State: Japan’s Economic Diplomacy in the Arctic. Third World Quarterly 39 (6): 1211–25 To increase its energy and, by extension, economic security, Japan began exploring the natural resources of the Arctic through multiple projects in partnership with its regional allies including the US, Canada, and the Nordic countries. In 2012, for example, Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) financially supported an offshore mineral exploration project off the coast of Greenland,²³⁾Headquarters for Ocean Policy (2015) Japan’s Arctic Policy. Headquarters for Ocean Policy (総合海洋政策本部), 16 October, https://www8.cao.go.jp/ocean/english/arctic/pdf/japans_ap_e.pdf. Accessed 21 August 2025. and an LNG extraction project in Alaska,²⁴⁾Tonami A, Watters S (2012) Japan’s Arctic Policy: The Sum of Many Parts. Arctic Yearbook. both owned by American corporations. Due to geographical proximity and Japan’s vital strategic interest in the NSR, however, Japan also participated in multiple Russian-led Arctic projects.

In a 2016 speech in Moscow, Japan’s Arctic Ambassador Kazuko Shiraishi emphasized that Japan’s core interests in the region include scientific research, utilization of the NSR, and active participation in Russian LNG projects such as Yamal, Arctic LNG 2 and Sakhalin-1. Seeking to diversify energy sources, Japan began to see Russia as one of its key partners in the 2011 post-Fukushima landscape.²⁵⁾Bhardwaj M (2025) Japan’s enduring relationship with the Arctic. Arctic Today, 01 September, https://www.arctictoday.com/japans-enduring-relationship-with-the-arctic-student-view/. Accessed 30 September 2025. Japan has provided financial support for the Russian Yamal LNG project²⁶⁾Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) (2020) MOL signs Charter Contract for Three Ice-Breaking LNG Carriers for Arctic LNG 2 Project in Russia. MOL, 02 November, https://www.mol.co.jp/en/pr/2020/20070.html. Accessed 15 September 2025. and in 2019 JOGMEC and Mitsui Co. jointly acquired a 10% stake in the Arctic LNG 2 project on the Gydan Peninsula,²⁷⁾Reuters (2019) Russia’s Novatek to sell 10% of Arctic LNG 2 to Japan’s JOGMEC, Mitsui. Reuters, 29 June, https://www.reuters.com/article/markets/currencies/russias-novatek-to-sell-10-of-arctic-lng-2-to-japans-jogmec-mitsui-idUSKCN1TU0F2/. Accessed 15 September 2025. which was followed by MOL’s commissioning of three icebreaker freighters for deployment along the NSR a year later.²⁸⁾Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) (2020) MOL signs Charter Contract for Three Ice-Breaking LNG Carriers for Arctic LNG 2 Project in Russia. MOL, 02 November, https://www.mol.co.jp/en/pr/2020/20070.html. Accessed 15 September 2025. Notably, and notwithstanding the fact that Japan’s LNG demand – in relative terms – has been on a downward trajectory since 2014,²⁹⁾This is due to the steady recommissioning of inactive nuclear reactors after Fukushima. the Yamal and Arctic LNG 2 projects continue to play a significant role in Japan’s domestic energy mix with energy accounting for over 70 % of Japan’s imports from Russia.³⁰⁾Bhardwaj M (2025) Japan’s enduring relationship with the Arctic. Arctic Today, 01 September, https://www.arctictoday.com/japans-enduring-relationship-with-the-arctic-student-view/. Accessed 30 September 2025.

Post-War Regional Landscape and Energy Hedging 

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine redefined the global geopolitical landscape and altered the status quo in the Arctic. With historically neutral Sweden and Finland joining NATO as a consequence of a war on Europe’s eastern flank, the region has been transformed from one with five NATO allies to a geopolitical arena where all regional states but one are part of NATO.³¹⁾Brimmer E D (2023) Changing Geopolitics in the Arctic. Council on Foreign Relations, 18 July, https://www.cfr.org/testimonies/changing-geopolitics-arctic-0. Accessed 18 October 2025. This has redefined the Arctic’s strategic importance, making it an area of vital interest for NATO, the EU, and, by extension, Japan due to its post-war embeddedness in U.S. led global order.

Responding to the invasion in 2022, Japan’s then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida condemned the invasion as a “blatant violation of international law,” and pledged to “work in close cooperation with the G7 as well as the international community.”³²⁾Prime Minister’s Office of Japan (2022) Press Conference by the Prime Minister. 25 February, https://japan.kantei.go.jp/101_kishida/statement/202202/_00013.html. Accessed 21 August 2025. In a subsequent sanctions package, the Japanese MOFA announced the suspension of visas for designated Russian citizens, froze the assets of three Russian banks, and banned the export of dual-use goods to Russia;³³⁾Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan (2022) Sanction Measures following the launch of military actions by Russia in Ukraine (Statement by Foreign Minister HAYASHI Yoshimasa). 25 February, https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/press6e_000371.html. Accessed 15 September 2025. measures which were further tightened in 2023 and 2025.³⁴⁾Reuters. (2023) Japan tightens Russian sanctions in line with G7. Al Jazeera, 26 May, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/26/japan-tightens-russian-sanctions-in-line-with-g7. Accessed 26 September 2025; The Japan Times. (2025) Japan expands its sanctions against Russia. 10 January, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/01/10/japan/politics/japan-sanctions-russia. Accessed 18 October 2025.

In terms of energy imports, Japan has been pursuing a path of phased out reduction of Russian energy imports as opposed to a blanket ban. Japan sees its energy security as a national security priority, with ex-Prime Minister Kishida going as far as stating that the “sanctions against Russia will not directly obstruct energy supply.”³⁵⁾Reuters (2022) Japan says energy supply secure as it promises more sanctions against Russia. Reuters, 25 February, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-will-strengthen-sanctions-against-russia-target-banks-2022-02-25/. Accessed 26 September 2025. For this reason, Japanese sanctions in the energy sector apply only to future investments by Japanese enterprises and do not affect the companies’ current stakes in Russian projects.³⁶⁾Humpert M (2022) Japan’s Mitsui Announces $700m Write-Down for Arctic LNG 2, Future Involvement Unclear. High North News, 5 May, https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/japans-mitsui-announces-700m-write-down-arctic-lng-2-future-involvement-unclear. Accessed 25 August 2025. Simultaneously, however, Japan has collaborated with the EU to help reduce European dependence on Russian LNG by diverting its surplus LNG cargo to European ports.³⁷⁾Kumagai T, Elliott S (2022) Japan, EU to cooperate to ensure LNG supply, reduce reliance on Russian energy. S&P Global, 12 May, https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/051222-japan-eu-to-cooperate-to-ensure-lng-supply-reduce-reliance-on-russian-energy/. Accessed 5 September 2025. This indicates that although Japan is willing to aid allied detachment efforts from Russian supply chains, it chooses to pursue a gradual phase-out policy for its own energy mix, limiting sanctions to future projects only.

Due to this, Tokyo has maintained its investments in the Sakhalin-1 and 2 oil and gas projects. The Sakhalin project is particularly important due to its geographical proximity to the Japanese archipelago with the shipping distance of just three days, making imports extremely cost efficient.³⁸⁾Nippon.com (2022) Japan and the Sakhalin Energy Projects. Nippon.com, 17 May, https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h01321/. Accessed 26 September 2025. For this reason, major Japanese corporations (sogo shosha) such as Itochu and Marubeni, as well as other major companies like Mitsui and Mitsubishi, maintain their positions in the project³⁹⁾Nippon.com (2022) Japan and the Sakhalin Energy Projects. Nippon.com, 17 May, https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h01321/. Accessed 26 September 2025. even after a majority-stake acquisition by the Russian state-owned Gazprom in 2022.⁴⁰⁾Uranaka M, Murakami S. (2022) Japan’s Mitsui, Mitsubishi to apply for stake in new Sakhalin-2 LNG operator. Reuters, 25 August, https://www.reuters.com/business/japans-mitsui-mitsubishi-apply-stake-new-sakhalin-2-lng-operator-2022-08-25. Accessed 25 September 2025. These strategic investments were approved by the Kishida administration, which declared no policy change on “maintaining concessions and interests” on Sakhalin.⁴¹⁾Nippon.com (2022) Japan and the Sakhalin Energy Projects. Nippon.com, 17 May, https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h01321/. Accessed 26 September 2025.

Similarly, Mitsui remains involved in the Arctic LNG 2 project despite a 2022 $162 million write-off and a $700 million share reduction related to its investment in the venture due to, according to its CEO, national energy security considerations. In parallel with this, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), fully owned by the Japanese government,⁴²⁾Japan Bank for International Cooperation (2023) The Mission of JBIC. JBIC, 1 December, https://www.jbic.go.jp/en/information/today/today_2023sp/jtd_202312_sp7.html. Accessed 15 December 2025. has also provided $1,8 billion in loans to the LNG 2 consortium.⁴³⁾Humpert M (2022) Japan’s Mitsui Announces $700m Write-Down for Arctic LNG 2, Future Involvement Unclear. High North News, 5 May, https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/japans-mitsui-announces-700m-write-down-arctic-lng-2-future-involvement-unclear. Accessed 25 August 2025. Such interplay between the private and public sector’s decisions demonstrates the presence of “iron triangle” decision-making in Japan’s energy, and by extension, broader Arctic policy.

Energy security, however, is not the only causal factor for Japan’s strategic hedging pertaining to Arctic investments. Japanese officials have also expressed concern that reducing Japanese investments in Arctic LNG 2 and the Sakhalin projects could provide China, which already has a 20 % stake in the LNG 2 and Yamal projects,⁴⁴⁾Humpert M (2022) Japan’s Mitsui Announces $700m Write-Down for Arctic LNG 2, Future Involvement Unclear. High North News, 5 May, https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/japans-mitsui-announces-700m-write-down-arctic-lng-2-future-involvement-unclear. Accessed 25 August 2025. with an opportunity to further increase its involvement in, and influence over, Russia’s Arctic projects at the expense of Japan.⁴⁵⁾Humpert M (2022) Japan’s Mitsui Announces $700m Write-Down for Arctic LNG 2, Future Involvement Unclear. High North News, 5 May, https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/japans-mitsui-announces-700m-write-down-arctic-lng-2-future-involvement-unclear. Accessed 25 August 2025.

Since declaring itself a “near-Arctic” state in 2018,⁴⁶⁾Brimmer E D (2023) Changing Geopolitics in the Arctic. Council on Foreign Relations, 18 July, https://www.cfr.org/testimonies/changing-geopolitics-arctic-0. Accessed 18 October 2025. the PRC has gradually increased its involvement in the Arctic and incorporated the region into its “total security strategy” (总体国家安全).⁴⁷⁾Puranen M, Kopra S (2023) China’s Arctic Strategy – A Comprehensive Approach in Times of Great Power Rivalry. Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, 6(1): 2023, p. 239–253. Pursuant to this strategy, Beijing aims to establish its presence as a polar actor by co-shaping regional political discourse, developing dual use technology, increasing military presence and establishing economic ties across the Arctic;⁴⁸⁾Puranen M, Kopra S (2023) China’s Arctic Strategy – A Comprehensive Approach in Times of Great Power Rivalry. Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, 6(1): 2023, p. 239–253. objectives which it increasingly seeks to secure via closer cooperation with, and investment in, Russia’ Arctic zone at a moment when Russia finds itself isolated on the world stage.⁴⁹⁾Cao Y. (2022) Implications for Sino-Russian Cooperation on the Polar Silk Road. Arctic Yearbook 2012. https://arcticyearbook.com/images/yearbook/2022/Scholarly-Papers/16A_AY2022_Cao.pdf. Accessed 28 October 2025.

Given the Chinese investments and Japan’s own energy security considerations, therefore, Tokyo needs to strike a balance between retaining its regional influence in the context of its broader strategic competition with China, continuing to diversify its energy supply, and remaining in compliance, to the extent practically feasible, with relevant sanction regimes in pursuing its Arctic strategy. So far, an “existing contracts now, diversification later” consensus seems to prevail among the iron triangle structures, with Japan’s Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stating in 2022 that LNG from Russia is “extremely important” for Japan’s energy security.⁵⁰⁾Nippon.com (2022) Japan will not abandon Sakhalin-2 LNG stake, PM Kishida says. Nippon.com, 31 March, https://www.nippon.com/en/news/reu20220331KCN2LS0LG/. Accessed 15 December 2025. Since the 2022 G7 summit Japan has pledged to step up diversification but “stick with its existing energy projects in Russia.”⁵¹⁾Kumagai T, Odaka M (2022) Japan to step up supply diversification as G7 commits to cut Russian energy reliance. S&P Global, 14 March, https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/031422-japan-to-step-up-supply-diversification-as-g7-commits-to-cut-russian-energy-reliance/. Accessed 5 September 2025. This approach is supported by Japan’s private sector stakeholders, who have raised concerns regarding increased fuel procurement risks. For instance, Japan’s largest natural gas utility company Tokyo Gas has warned of rising consumer prices if it were forced to detach from Russian energy supplies.⁵²⁾Golubkova K, Obayashi Y (2024) Rival LNG supplies, Sakhalin’s depleting fields give Japan an exit from Russian gas. Reuters, 11 December, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/rival-lng-supplies-sakhalins-depleting-fields-give-japan-an-exit-russian-gas-2024-12-11/. Accessed 19 October 2025.

On the other hand, civil society actors and NGOs, such as Fossil Free Japan, have urged large corporations to divest from Russian projects, since Japanese fossil fuel purchases help finance Russia’s war in Ukraine.⁵³⁾Fossil Free Japan (2022) Japan must cut ties with Russian fossil fuels and stop financing fossil fuels globally. Fossil Free Japan, 16 March, https://fossilfreejapan.org/media/media-releases/japan-must-cut-ties-with-russian-fossil-fuels-and-stop-financing-fossil-fuels-globally/. Accessed 25 August 2025. Moreover, following the recent election of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP),⁵⁴⁾Khalil S, Tan Y (2025) Sanae Takaichi makes history as Japan’s first female prime minister. BBC, 21 October, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c751z23n3n7o. Accessed 21 October 2025. Japan may be expected to pursue measures enhancing its domestic energy security such as restarting unused nuclear reactors and developing fusion, and geothermal power capabilities.⁵⁵⁾Hasegawa M (2025) Japan elects Sanae Takaichi as new premier. Argus Media, 21 October. https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2744409-japan-elects-sanae-takaichi-as-new-premier. Accessed 23 October 2025. Statements from the Trump administration urging Japan to “stop buying Russian energy”⁵⁶⁾Shakil I, Golubkova K (2025) Bessent says US expects Japan to stop buying Russian energy. Reuters, 16 October, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bessent-says-us-expects-japan-stop-buying-russian-energy-2025-10-16. Accessed 18 October 2025. and Japan’s recent $7 billion commitment to energy purchases from the US⁵⁷⁾Reuters (2025) Japan explores Alaskan LNG purchases as part of $7 bln energy deal, US-Japan statement shows. Reuters, 5 September, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/japan-explores-alaskan-lng-purchases-part-7-bln-energy-deal-us-japan-statement-2025-09-05/. Accessed 25 September 2025. also widen the window of opportunity for the Japanese government to develop a new public-private consensus – one where energy reliance on Russian supply chains is further diminished.

Future Developments and Policy Recommendations

In recent years, Japan has increasingly become reliant on countries such as the US, Australia, Malaysia, and Oman for parts of its energy supply. As part of its green transition, Japan is also committed to decreasing the amount of LNG used for power generation to just 20 % by 2030 indicating that a part of the supply reduction could manifest itself in reduced purchase of Russian fossil fuel.⁵⁸⁾Golubkova K, Obayashi Y (2024) Rival LNG supplies, Sakhalin’s depleting fields give Japan an exit from Russian gas. Reuters, 11 December, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/rival-lng-supplies-sakhalins-depleting-fields-give-japan-an-exit-russian-gas-2024-12-11/. Accessed 19 October 2025. Moreover, contracts of major Japanese companies are bound to expire between 2026-2033 at the same time as Sakhalin’s main LNG field nears depletion which is predicted to only offer stable supply until 2033.⁵⁹⁾Golubkova K, Obayashi Y (2024) Rival LNG supplies, Sakhalin’s depleting fields give Japan an exit from Russian gas. Reuters, 11 December, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/rival-lng-supplies-sakhalins-depleting-fields-give-japan-an-exit-russian-gas-2024-12-11/. Accessed 19 October 2025. For their part, large corporations, such as Mitsui and Mitsubishi, remain undecided about continued commitment to Arctic and sub-Arctic projects,⁶⁰⁾Golubkova K, Obayashi Y (2024) Rival LNG supplies, Sakhalin’s depleting fields give Japan an exit from Russian gas. Reuters, 11 December, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/rival-lng-supplies-sakhalins-depleting-fields-give-japan-an-exit-russian-gas-2024-12-11/. Accessed 19 October 2025. opening a space for persuasion toward long-term divestment away from the Russian energy market.

The impending expiration of Japanese energy contracts in Russia as well as current corporate uncertainty over their future presence in Russia, in turn, not only reduces lock-in effects but also frees up capital that can be redirected toward alternative energy investments, particularly in the renewable sector such as offshore wind power. In 2026, Tokyo aims to begin planning a national floating wind test center; an initiative led by the government-approved FLOWRA research association in collaboration with 21 major Japanese companies including Tokyo Gas and JERA. The target is to expand Japan’s current wind energy production capacity of 253 megawatt (MW) to 45 GW by 2040 while actively collaborating with its like-minded allies including Norway and the UK.⁶¹⁾Golubkova K, Obayashi Y (2025) Japan to start planning floating wind test centre next year, industry official says. Reuters, 10 September, https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/japan-start-planning-floating-wind-test-centre-next-year-industry-official-says-2025-09-10/. Accessed 23 November 2025.

Under pressure from the Trump Administration and keen to satisfy the President’s demand as part of a broader damage control strategy in the context of its bilateral relations with the United States, Japan has been considering large-scale investment in the planned Alaska natural gas pipeline.⁶²⁾Davies K, Dempsey H, Smyth J (2025) Donald Trump’s Alaska LNG ambitions fall flat with Asian allies despite tariff pressure. Financial Times, 5 August, https://www.ft.com/content/2f7d0abe-75d6-4f8d-a76c-7bb42f4650eb. Accessed 19 January 2026. In May 2025, Kyushu Electric Power also pledged to sign a contract with the U.S. firm Energy Transfer to purchase up to 1 million metric tons of LNG from its Lake Charles natural gas project.⁶³⁾Obayashi Y (2025) Kyushu Electric to sign 20-year deal to buy LNG from US firm Energy Transfer. Reuters, 29 May. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/kyushu-electric-sign-20-year-deal-buy-lng-us-lake-charles-project-2025-05-29/. Accessed 2 January 2026.

These efforts, along with the recommissioning of 15 nuclear power plants,⁶⁴⁾Rowlands L (2025) Japan set to restart world’s biggest nuclear power plant. Al Jazeera, 22 December, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/22/japan-set-to-restart-worlds-biggest-nuclear-power-plant. Accessed 30 December 2025. open the opportunity for energy supply chain restructuring and redefining the Japanese role in the Arctic. Building on the previously effective developmental state approach, Japanese policymakers should, therefore, strive for a new private-public consensus prioritizing risk-free energy supply and continued soft power engagement in the Arctic. While gradually abandoning the Sakhalin-1 and Arctic LNG 2 project might seemingly strengthen China’s regional foothold, Japan can offset this effect by remaining engaged in regional scientific research, building regional coalitions with like-minded allies, and/or jointly shaping the discourse on responsible Arctic governance. In the long run, this approach would allow Tokyo to explore energy extraction opportunities in Alaska and Greenland, gain renewable energy expertise from Nordic allies, and distinguish its approach from China’s.

Ultimately, Japan will have to find a balance between its strategic interests in the Arctic and its credibility as a Western ally. Skillfully utilizing the emerging window of opportunity for detachment from Russia will allow Japan to rebalance its supply chain and reorient itself towards ventures exposed to a lower geopolitical risk in close coordination with its Arctic seven allies in sectors deemed critical to green transition. To achieve this, Japan should leverage its long-established developmental state model of private-public decision-making and simultaneously build and strengthen its soft power influence in the Arctic in order to balance against China’s strategic engagement and investments along the NSR.

Viktor Šimov is a recent graduate holding a BSc in Business and Economics from the Stockholm School of Economics (SSE) and a prospective student at the Swedish Defence University (FHS).